What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet is a straightforward wager in which you simply bet on which team will win a specific game. You'll choose one of two teams or participants, and whether you win will be solely based on the outright winner of the matchup. If you only want to make wagers on which teams you think will win the game with no strings attached, the moneyline is for you.
When you bet the moneyline at Vermont sportsbooks, the odds reflect how powerful or weak each team is.
How Does Moneyline Work in Sports Betting? Understanding Moneyline Betting
Moneyline odds are used to indicate the potential profit or loss associated with a bet on the winning team. While the moneyline is the most straightforward wager you can make, you’ll still need to consider the odds for each matchup. One of the biggest factors in moneyline betting is considering the value based on the odds.
No matter the matchup, moneyline odds change all the time.
How to Read Moneyline Odds
Knowing how to read odds & betting lines is important as you’ll understand your payout. Below, I explain the moneyline odds using American odds (positive and negative odds).
The Favorite: Negative Odds
The moneyline "favorite" team will have negative odds notated with a minus sign (-). Negative moneyline odds indicate the amount you would need to bet to win $100. If the Boston Bruins are -165 favorites over the Columbus Blue Jackets, that means you would have to bet $165 to net a $100 profit.
The Underdog: Positive Odds
Conversely, the moneyline "underdog" team will have positive odds notated with a plus sign (+). Positive moneyline odds indicate the amount you can profit on a $100 bet. If you bet $100 on the Ottawa Senators (+200 odds) to beat the Vancouver Canucks, you would profit $200 and win $300 back.
Even, EV, or Pick’ Em
In most matchups, there will be a favorite and an underdog, but there are rare occasions when the two teams are so close in strength that some Vermont sports betting apps label them as a “pick’em.”
With even odds, these are notated with +100 or -100. The payouts are the same; you’d win $100 with a successful wager.
Understanding Implied Probability of Moneyline Odds
You can use moneyline odds to determine the implied probability. Implied probability is an estimate of the likelihood of a specific outcome and is presented in percentages.
Converting moneyline odds to implied probability can help you find favorable bets and figure out which sportsbooks are offering real value in their odds. If the implied probability is lower than your prediction for a given game, that could be a bet worth making,
Don't forget that sportsbooks build in margins to their odds, so the total of all implied probability outcomes won't necessarily equal 100%.
Below I calculate the implied probability of various moneyline bets using NHL betting examples:
- Positive Moneyline Odds Implied Probability Formula: 100 / (Odds + 101)
If the Ottawa Senators have +200 odds vs. the Canucks, their implied probability would be 100/301, or 33.2%.
- Negative Moneyline Odds Implied Probability Formula: |Odds| / (|Odds| +100)
If the Boston Bruins are -165 favorites over the Columbus Blue Jackets, their implied probability would be 165/265, or 62.3%.
Potential Outcomes of a Moneyline Bet
With moneyline bets, there are three possible outcomes—you win, lose, or in some sports, there’s a tie. Below, I explain how you arrive at each outcome.
- âś… Win: If you bet on a team to win with a moneyline bet, you simply need them to win the game.
- ❌ Loss: If you bet on a team to win and they lose the game, you lose the wager and the amount you placed on it
- 📍 Push or Draw: If you bet on a team to win a moneyline bet and they tie, this is known as a “push.” These are more common with a point spread bet, but you’ll receive your wager back if this happens.
How Moneylines Connect to Other Bet Types
While there are separate wagers you can make, you can trace them all back to the moneyline. The moneyline illustrates the gap in power between two teams, which can influence point spreads, totals, props, and even a parlay bet. For more in-depth guides on every type of bet, read our comprehensive guide on how to bet on sports in Vermont.
Comparing Two-Way Moneyline vs. 3-Way Moneyline
Where a typical moneyline bet offers odds on just two outcomes, a 3 way moneyline bet offers bets on three outcomes. Those outcomes are usually either team to win or the game or regulation time to end in a tie. These are more common with sports like hockey, soccer and other sports where ties are more common.
For example, the three-way moneyline odds on Bruins vs. Blue Jackets are listed as: Bruins -165, Blue Jackets +295, Draw +400.
Moneyline vs Point Spread
Moneyline odds clearly shows which team is favored and the underdog. Instead of betting on the outright winner on the moneyline, you can choose to bet on a team to cover the spread. If you're not interested in betting on the favorite, you can choose to bet on that team to cover the point spread. Alternatively, you could bet on the underdog to cover the spread even if they don't win outright.
You can examine a teams odds to cover the spread and compare them to moneyline odds to find the bet that has more value. Depending on the sport, you can expect an incremental increase per every 0.5 points with point spreads.
Using the NFL as an example, the odds for a favorite and underdog climb:
- Spread of-2: -130/+110
- Spread of-2.5: -140/+120
- Spread of-3: -155/+135
- Spread of-3.5: -175/+155
- Spread of-4: -200/+170
- Spread of-4.5: -220/+180
- Spread of-5/-5.5: -240/+190
- Spread of-6: -270/+210
- Spread of-6.5: -300/+220
- Spread of -7: -330/+250
- Spread of -7.5/-8/-8.5: -360/+280
- Spread of -9/-9.5: -400/+300
- Spread of -10: -450/+325
Moneyline Parlay Odds Explained
Parlays are a type of bet where you’ll stack multiple odds as one bet. All bets on your parlay must win to be graded as a win. The odds are longer, but you’ll receive a higher payout if you win.
For example, let’s build a parlay using three moneyline bets:
- Team A: -145
- Team B: -175
- Team C: -150
- Combined Parlay Odds: +342
The implied probabilities of all three wagers winning impact the parlay odds, turning your three betting favorites into one underdog bet.
Moneyline vs Over/Unders
When looking at a game to wager on, the over/under or totals line provided can provide some insight into how to wager on the moneyline. Games with higher totals typically impact the moneyline for the favorite in a less favorable way as more points are expected to be scored, which usually is because of the favorite.
However, you can also estimate where those points will come from, and in a higher-scoring game, there could be potential for an upset.
Tips for New Moneyline Bettors
Moneyline betting, at its core, is easy to understand, but there are always tips you can utilize to make it that much smoother.
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Understand Home-Field Advantage If the odds are close enough and the home team is the underdog, betting on the home team could be a sharp wager. In 2022, home team moneyline wagers were 134-107-2, meaning they won 55.6% of the time. -
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Consider Spread & Total There could be instances where betting the moneyline just makes more sense than the spread and vice-versa. If an NFL team has moneyline odds at -145 and the point spread odds at -110 with a spread of 2.5, you’re better off taking the point spread at -2.5. In the NFL, teams typically win by three points or more when they do win. -
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Shop Around This is perhaps my No. 1 moneyline tip, and it’s also the easiest. It may take a bit more time, but if you shop around or do "line shopping," you’ll likely find more value. For example, if the Chiefs are -400 at one sportsbook and -370 at the other, the bettor earned 30 points in value. -
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Take Advantage of Promotions Sportsbook promotions, whether for new or existing bettors, can provide immense value. All Vermont sports betting welcome offers can be used toward moneyline wagers unless otherwise stated. Still, some sportsbooks might have moneyline-specific promotions available for you to use.
Get Started Betting the Moneyline in Vermont
Moneyline betting is a great way to gain experience with sports betting. I recommend giving it a try before diving into more complex betting markets, as this will allow you to understand odds and implied probability. That will hopefully lead to more money in your virtual wallet!
Vermont Moneyline FAQ
Author
Graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard has written for notable sports outlets such as Bleacher Report. Now with BetVermont.com, Richard is able to combine his sports and gambling interests to spend time exploring online sportsbooks and casinos.
